By: Katie Briante
As of June 24, the United States recorded it’s third highest total of new cases of COVID-19, the highest it’s seen since the end of April.
So, as the country is seeing a spike in cases, how has New Jersey, one of the former epicenters of the outbreak, maintained a relatively steady decrease in new cases since the beginning of May?
According to COVID Act Now, an organization that created an open-source model that predicts COVID-19 risk by region, New Jersey is one of the few states that has not only controlled the growth of COVID-19 but is well on it’s way to containing it.
The COVID Act Now model uses four key indicators to determine if a state has prepared itself well enough to handle the disease.
Are COVID-19 cases decreasing?
Are they testing enough?
Are the hospitals ready?
Are they contact tracing fast enough?
New Jersey ranked very well in all of these categories and looking more closely at each one may give some insight into how the state has managed to control this outbreak within its borders.
**Are COVID-19 Cases Decreasing?**
Since May, New Jersey has been seeing a relative decline in COVID-19 cases. This could be attributed, in part, to the strict regulations the state has put in place to prevent spread.
WalletHub did a study to find out which states had the most COVID-19 restrictions and New Jersey was found to be one of the most restrictive states and has maintained that ranking since the beginning of May.
Similarly, other states that scored well in the COVID Act Now model have also maintained their ranks in the WalletHub study as relatively restrictive states.
This correlation could point to the strict guidelines and social distancing measures New Jersey has put into place as a reason for the decrease in COVID-19 cases.
**Are They Testing Enough?**
In early May, the state-directed $6 million of federal funding to Rutgers University to help it raise it’s testing production capabilities.
In Governor Murphy's COVID-19 press conference on Thursday, June 25, 2020, he announced that the state now has over 2100 testing centers.
NJ COVID-19 Information Hub said testing is now available to all New Jerseyans. New Jersey also made testing available for every resident regardless of whether they had symptoms or not and allowed them to receive the test without a prescription.
COVID Act Now reports that only 1.5 percent of COVID-19 tests were positive in New Jersey, which is well under the 10 percent test rate that the World Health Organization recommends for containing the spread.
The reason that the testing numbers are so crucial to the containment of the virus is with “widespread, aggressive testing” the state is able to isolate new cases and “can help contain COVID without resorting to lockdowns,” according to COVID Act Now.
**Are The Hospitals Ready?**
Estimates put New Jersey’s ICU capacity at just over 1,000 beds and with about 12 percent being used for Non-COVID patients that leave a little over 900 beds for the less than 300 estimated cases in New Jersey.
Resolve to Save Lives, a pandemic thinktank, recommends that hospitals should have the ICU capacity to be able to double their COVID-19 cases without becoming overwhelmed.
This means that if there is a second wave of cases, New Jersey is predicted to be able to handle it.
**Are They Contact Tracing Fast Enough?**
According to the CDC, Contact tracing is a process in which professionals trace and monitor the contacts of people who are infected with COVID-19. Contact tracing allows state and local governments to contain the spread of the virus by informing people if they’ve been in contact with someone who is infected and encouraging them to get tested or to quarantine.
According to COVID Act Now, taking into consideration the daily number of new cases, New Jersey would need just over 1,500 contact tracers to trace all of the new cases within 48 hours.
New Jersey currently has 2,500 contact tracers meaning that they are more than capable of tracing new cases in 48 hours, which can significantly reduce the level of people unknowingly transmitting the virus.
As the fight against COVID-19 in the United States renews, other states may be able to look to New Jersey as an example of how to contain the spread of the virus.
By following New Jersey’s lead and being smart about restrictions and reopening, the rest of the country may be able to contain the outbreak as well.